CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK
TORNADO OUTLOOK
WIND OUTLOOK
HAIL OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SWD INTO NC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FL AND SRN GA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR NRN ID INTO NWRN MT... ...SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SWD INTO NC... INITIAL BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS WEAKENED AS IT MOVED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE SRN PART OF THE LINE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE FROM NJ AND DEL. ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...CLOUDS ARE THINNING TO THE WEST AND NEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER EAST CENTRAL/SERN NY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH PREDICTS REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THIS AREA SWD INTO THE DEL RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AND IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...WEAK CONVECTION EXTENDS WSWWD NEAR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN VA. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES FEW CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER ERN/SRN VA INTO NC WHERE STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING WITHIN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEW POINTS NEAR 70. THIS WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE REACHING 2000-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CAP GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SEWD FROM THE DELMARVA AND SRN/ERN VA INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN NC BY EVENING. NWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 25-35 KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING. ...FL INTO SRN GA... SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS EXTEND FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO NNEWD INTO FL TO THE EAST OF TS DEBBY. WDSS-II MOSAIC DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW ROTATIONAL TRACKS SOUTH OF TPA AND MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL FL ATTM...AND THESE SMALL SUPERCELLS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL BANDS OVER THE ERN GULF IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE TS CENTER ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND FROM WEST CENTRAL INTO NRN FL/SRN GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH NEW CELLS ALSO FORMING OVER NRN FL WHERE BREAKS IN CLOUDS/STRONGER HEATING IS OCCURRING. PERSISTENT STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE TS WILL PROMOTE FORMATION OF OCCASIONAL MESOCYCLONES AND CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. ...NWRN MT INTO FAR NRN ID... AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS WWD ACROSS MT TO WEST OF THE DIVIDE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY OVER FAR NWRN MT/NRN ID PANHANDLE...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIAL ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER FAVORED HIGH TERRAIN...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS OREGON ATTM. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR /40-50 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAINLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. ...ERN MT SWD INTO ERN WY AND WRN DAKOTAS... CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY EXISTS FROM ERN MT SWD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO ERN WY AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS...AS 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS ALSO PRESENT WHICH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR ANY PERSISTENT UPDRAFT THAT CAN DEVELOP. A LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED AND THE AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..WEISS/LEITMAN.. 06/25/2012 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1805Z (1:05PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME 
No comments:
Post a Comment