CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES TUESDAY AS A NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS NWD OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS FROM THE SWRN U.S. NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. THE NHC FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DURING TUESDAY KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE FL PANHANDLE WHILE DRIFTING SLOWLY NEWD. ...FL PENINSULA... TROPICAL STORM DEBBY FORECAST BY NHC TO DRIFT SLOWLY NEWD S OF THE FL PANHANDLE TUESDAY. NAM/GFS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A BAND OF 30-35 KT 850 MB WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THIS...COMBINED WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND LOW LCL VALUES /AOB 1000 M/ SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT DURING THE DAY. ...NRN PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES... AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NEWD ACROSS MT TUESDAY TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS NRN MT/WRN ND AS FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS AN AXIS OF MODERATE/STG INSTABILITY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS HOWEVER THE QUESTION REMAINS THE EXTENT TO WHICH DEVELOPMENT OCCURS GIVEN VERY WARM AIR ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT SVR PROBABILITIES WITH THIS OUTLOOK WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR HIGHER VALUES WITH SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. ..BUNTING.. 06/25/2012 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1800Z (1:00PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME 
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