MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1274 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0309 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT...SW ND...NW SD...NE WY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 252009Z - 252215Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL GIVEN STRONG CAP IN PLACE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED TO DETERMINE IF A SVR WW IS NEEDED BY 21-22Z. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. DISCUSSION...A CONDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL SITUATION IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED WITH ELEVATED CUMULUS/MID-LEVEL SCATTERED CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT THE CAP IS WEAKENING GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND AS EVIDENT BY TCU/AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NEAR BYG AND GCC. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEARLY 70...AT LEAST A STORM OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO BREACH STRONG CAP. SHOULD THIS OCCUR THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES...ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND STRONG INSTABILITY. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH DCAPE VALUES GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG. AGAIN...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER/HOW MANY STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE STRONG EML/CAP IN PLACE. THEREFORE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS TO DETERMINE IF A SVR WW IS NEEDED. ..LEITMAN/MEAD.. 06/25/2012 ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW... LAT...LON 46190691 46990598 47470504 47700433 47690388 47460312 47080271 46690248 45880243 44910299 44180372 43710484 43500569 43560619 44420665 44850701 45290734 45760719 46190691
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