THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK 

TORNADO OUTLOOK 

WIND OUTLOOK 

HAIL OUTLOOK 

     DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK       NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012          VALID 191630Z - 201200Z          ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN     PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...          ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NORTHEAST LOWER MI...          AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER THE     NORTHWEST U.S...WHILE UPPER RIDGING MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER THE     REMAINDER OF THE NATION.  AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS ANALYZED OVER     CENTRAL SD WITH A PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO     SOUTHERN MN.  THIS LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD     THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO SPREAD     ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN.  THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A     ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.          PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL     PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MN WHERE     WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT IS OCCURRING.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD     PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.          THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN WILL EVOLVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND     EVENING AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL     MN AND NORTHEAST SD.  A COMBINATION OF MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG     AND STRONG LOW LEVEL/DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE     SUPERCELL/BOW STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING     WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO A     FAST-MOVING BOW ECHO DURING THE EVENING...TRACKING ALONG THE     CORRIDOR OF HIGHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES ACROSS CENTRAL MN.            ...SD/NEB...     FARTHER SOUTHWEST...THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BECOME VERY     STRONG OVER NEB AFTER DARK.  THIS SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED     THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING     ACROSS THE AREA.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE CAPE AND SUFFICIENT     VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A RISK OF HAIL-PRODUCING STORMS.          ...UPPER MI...     A LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MI.      LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE     STORMS.  THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE INTO LAKE HURON AFTER 18Z...ENDING     THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.          ..HART/MOSIER.. 06/19/2012          NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z     CURRENT UTC TIME: 1624Z (11:24AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME