Monday, June 18, 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1010 PM UNTIL 400 AM CDT






     URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 408     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     1010 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012          THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF                  SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA            NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA          EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1010 PM     UNTIL 400 AM CDT.          HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70     MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.          THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70     STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST     SOUTHWEST OF ABERDEEN SOUTH DAKOTA TO 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF     REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH     SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).          REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE     FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH     AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR     THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS     AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY     DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.          OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 407...          DISCUSSION...POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT     ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS A FAST-MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE     IMPULSE SPREADS EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS...AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW     LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO AID DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ACROSS ERN SD AND WRN     MN THROUGH TONIGHT. PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND     ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLUX ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL FUEL     INTENSIFYING STORM UPDRAFTS AMIDST MORE THAN ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE     SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE AND ROTATION. SINCE STRONG     SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER COUPLING...EXPECT     THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION TO BE LARGE HAIL.     HOWEVER...WITH TIME...INTENSIFYING COLD POOL AND STRENGTH OF THE     MEAN-LAYER FLOW...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME BOUNDARY LAYER     INHIBITION AND SUPPORT A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH AND INCREASING     CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...GREATEST RISK     MAY EVOLVE AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MN.          AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT     TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60     KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM     MOTION VECTOR 25030.               ...CARBIN

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