THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR UPPER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR TOMORROW

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK 

 PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK 

     DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK       NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     1226 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012          VALID 201200Z - 211200Z          ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR UPPER MI AND NRN/CNTRL     WI...          ...SYNOPSIS...     LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SWRN CANADA/NWRN CONUS WILL     SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE S-CNTRL CANADA/N-CNTRL CONUS BY EARLY THU.     EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL EJECT ACROSS     THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS     FEATURE WILL FORCE A SURFACE COLD FRONT EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT     LAKES...EXTENDING SWWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL     ANTICYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT EWD IN THE ERN CONUS.           ...UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER/MID-MO VALLEY...     WITH TSTM CLUSTERS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z/WED IN PORTIONS OF     THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO NEB...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD INTENSIFY WITH     DIURNAL HEATING. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN     MODEST...SURFACE HEATING AMIDST MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW     POINTS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE BUOYANCY. WHILE A RATHER     STRONG MID-LEVEL JET CORE WILL TRANSLATE TO THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF     THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE N-CNTRL CONUS...IT     APPEARS THE BULK OF INTENSE SWLYS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF     THE COLD FRONT. STILL...MODERATELY STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND     PROFILES SHOULD EXIST IN THE IMMEDIATE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IN     UPPER MI TO NRN/CNTRL WI. THUS...GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR ORGANIZED     UPDRAFTS EXISTS HERE WHERE A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED WITH A     PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. WITH SWRN EXTENT...PROGRESSIVELY     WEAKER FLOW AND ILL-DEFINED HODOGRAPHS /FLOW POTENTIALLY DECREASING     WITH HEIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS/ SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR     SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL BE MARGINAL.           ...NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...       MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE     MID-ATLANTIC...WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NEWD IN     NEW ENGLAND. FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS RATHER NEBULOUS IN THE     BUILDING WARM SECTOR...BUT A FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF STRONG     BUOYANCY/SHEAR SHOULD EXIST WED AFTERNOON/EVENING IN A RELATIVELY     NARROW NW/SE-CORRIDOR. ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN     TSTMS APPEARS LOW...A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WILL     EXIST SHOULD TSTMS FORM.          ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...     A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD DEVELOP WED     EVENING/NIGHT ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT THAT     SHOULD STALL INVOF RATON MESA. ALTHOUGH HIGHER-LEVEL W/NWLYS SHOULD     BE MODEST...SUBSTANTIAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT     WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITHIN A WEAK     UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.          ..GRAMS.. 06/19/2012          NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z     CURRENT UTC TIME: 1737Z (12:37PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME