MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1222 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SE/CNTRL TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 191805Z - 191900Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE TX GULF COAST NWD INTO CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ISOLATED/LOW SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED AND SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS SE/CNTRL TX. THIS AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A WARM/MOIST PROFILE THROUGH A LARGE PART OF THE TROPOSPHERE...EVIDENCED BY PWATS GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES ON 16Z DERIVED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SKINNY MLCAPE PROFILES /NORMALIZED CAPE BELOW 0.15 PER THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS/. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH THE MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW /0-1 KM BULK ABOVE 15 KTS/ AND STORM MOTION ABOVE 25 KTS WITH SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS IN A FEW STORMS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW BUT SOME THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR. ADDITIONALLY...AFOREMENTIONED MOIST PROFILE WILL SUPPORT HIGH RAIN RATES WITH RAINFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN AN INCH POSSIBLE DESPITE THE QUICK STORM MOTION. ISOLATED/LOW SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW. ..MOSIER/HART.. 06/19/2012 ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 32629708 33039615 32759498 32249452 31349480 30689513 30169562 29579647 29639757 30849783 32159774 32629708
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