MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223, AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/N-CNTRL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1223     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0454 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/N-CNTRL NEB          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE           VALID 192154Z - 192330Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT          SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED     WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF WRN/N-CNTRL NEB. LARGE     HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS ARE BEING     MONITORED FOR A WW.          DISCUSSION...AT 2130Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWWD OUT OF ERN SD AND     ACROSS N-CNTRL INTO WRN NEB. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY     STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH     IS AIDING IN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. THIS     DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT     IS RESULTING IN DEEPENING CUMULUS...WHICH MAY EVOLVE INTO     ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT HR OR TWO. LATER IN     THE NIGHT...STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE FURTHER ALONG/BEHIND THE     FRONT AS ASCENT INCREASES WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. IN THE     MEANT TIME...LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY     TEMPERATURES FROM 90-100F...DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S...AND     STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE YIELDING MODERATE TO STRONG     INSTABILITY. THOUGH STRONGEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RESIDES OVER THE     COOL SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...A FEW SVR STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR     LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING     GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS.          ..GARNER/CARBIN.. 06/19/2012               ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...          LAT...LON   42189786 40929881 40309978 40090070 40260161 41240221                 42120192 42480062 42949969 42889822 42189786