THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK  

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK 

     DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK       NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     1224 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012          VALID 141200Z - 151200Z          ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN     GREAT LAKES INTO ERN NEB...          ...SYNOPSIS...     A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY     AND INTO MANITOBA DURING THE D2 PERIOD. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD     FROM A PRIMARY SFC LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE FROM THE ERN     DAKOTAS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z FRI AS SRN/WRN PORTIONS OF     THE COLD FRONT BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A     WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP AND EXTEND SWD FROM THE MANITOBA SFC LOW     INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z FRI.  A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE     WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE NERN U.S. THROUGH THE     PERIOD.          ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES INTO ERN NEB...     TSTMS SHOULD BE ON-GOING ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS/WRN MN     AT 12Z THU AIDED BY STG LOW-LEVEL WAA.  DESPITE SOME QUESTION ON THE     MAGNITUDE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING     COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTN WITH MLCAPE     VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/JG...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. AS FORCING FOR     ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO     BETWEEN 45-50 KTS AND SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR     LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE     ...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INTERACT WITH THE WARM FRONT DURING THE     AFTN/EVENING. SVR PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER     OUTLOOKS AS THE EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES AND THE MAGNITUDE OF     INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.          ...MID-MO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...     EXPECT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT     THU AFTN/EVENING FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.     DESPITE WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /20-25 KTS/...INSTABILITY WILL BE     SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR     LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THU     NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...TSTMS OVER WRN KS MAY     PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.          ..BUNTING.. 06/13/2012          NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z     CURRENT UTC TIME: 1757Z (12:57PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME