MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0151 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM / SERN CO /  TX AND OK PNHDLS          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE           VALID 131851Z - 131945Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT          SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR     TWO WITHIN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND SOME     SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.      CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.          DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW     DEEPENING CUMULUS CONVECTION ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS     WITH AN ADDITIONAL AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD NOTED ALONG THE TX/NM     BORDER NE TCC.  THESE OBSERVATIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH LATEST RAP     GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE CAP ACROSS THE DISCUSSION     AREA WITH MLCAPE VALUES NOW APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG.            CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND GROWING INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE     TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER     ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS BY 21-22Z IN EITHER OR BOTH AREAS     MENTIONED ABOVE.  AREA VAD/PROFILER DATA AND MODEL-DERIVED FORECAST     SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT GENERALLY WEAK MIDLEVEL FLOW /I.E. 15-20 KT     AT 500 MB/ WILL LIMIT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAGNITUDE TO 30 KT OR LESS.      HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE AND THE     MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS     CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.          ..MEAD.. 06/13/2012               ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...          LAT...LON   35770569 36300548 36880532 37510506 37730481 38020427                 38300383 38400332 38390280 38020236 37370222 35270192                 34800204 34320262 34050340 34350436 35190545 35770569