MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1151     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0204 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...FAR W TX...SERN NM          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE           VALID 131904Z - 132000Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT          SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE AND AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL     AND DMGG WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE     TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.          DISCUSSION...AN UPSTREAM UPPER IMPULSE POSITIONED OVER WRN AZ /PER     RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOP/ IS SLOWLY TRANSLATING EWD...WITH AN     ACCOMPANYING BAND OF INFERRED ASCENT SPREADING INTO SRN NM. VWP DATA     FROM HDX ALSO INDICATES MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW MAY BE ENHANCED /30-40 KTS     ABOVE 5 KM AGL/ IN THE VICINITY OF THIS IMPULSE...AND IS STRONGER     THAN MOST NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE. MEANWHILE...STRONG     DAYTIME HEATING IS OCCURRING OVER FAR W TX AND SERN NM DESPITE THE     PRESENCE OF SCT MIDLEVEL CLOUDS...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE     UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS POCKETS OF     TOWERING CU OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN /INCLUDING THE     SACRAMENTO...GUADALUPE...AND DAVIS MTNS/...AND WITH CONTINUED     HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM UPPER IMPULSE...THE     POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR STORMS WILL CONTINUE     TO INCREASE.          LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TO BE AIDED BY 30 KTS OF 0-1     KM SSELY FLOW /PER MAF VWP/ INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN NM.     AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE...VEERING WIND     PROFILES...AND MLCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG...SUFFICIENT FOR     ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND     GUSTS.          ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 06/13/2012               ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...          LAT...LON   29950232 29270333 29360399 30590485 31990535 33160559                 33800553 34090476 34200383 33660305 29950232