CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK
TORNADO OUTLOOK
WIND OUTLOOK
HAIL OUTLOOK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CDT WED JUN 13 2012 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD WITH THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE BEING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL AMPLIFY WHILE TRANSLATING EWD FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO NRN PLAINS AND SRN CANADA PRAIRIE PROVINCES. ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SALIENT FEATURE IS A MORE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL AIR STREAM WHICH WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH SRN PARTS OF AZ/NM AND NWRN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TODAY OVER ERN WY /IN RESPONSE TO POLAR BRANCH SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE/ WITH THIS FEATURE DEVELOPING EWD TO ERN SD BY 14/12Z. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ATTENDED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...AND SEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A PRE-FRONTAL OR LEE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY FROM THE WY CYCLONE SWD THROUGH ERN PARTS OF CO/NM. ...NRN PLAINS... EML ORIGINATING FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL BE ADVECTED NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND SD IN ADVANCE OF NRN HIGH PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...RESULTING IN STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A STRENGTHENING CAP. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR ABOVE A GRADUALLY MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LEE LOW AND COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. INCREASED HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE/CONVERGENT FLOW N/NW OF WRN SD SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO FOSTER ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ON THE EDGE OF STRONGER CAP FROM SERN MT/NWRN SD INTO WRN ND. ADDITIONAL...ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT ACROSS NRN SD/SRN ND. IN THE PRESENCE OF A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH AROUND 50 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS AS THE INITIAL STORM MODE WITH POSSIBLE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TX... THE COMBINATION OF STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH AND OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING NOCTURNAL MCS OVER N-CNTRL/CNTRL TX WILL ENHANCE ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT...ALLOWING FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM/SWRN TX. THIS MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/EML...YIELDING AFTERNOON MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500-3000 J/KG. CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH AND/OR LIFT ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL LIKELY BE AIDED BY EWD PROGRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE MENTIONED ABOVE...FOSTERING ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM SERN CO INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TX. WHILE MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS DIMINISHED FROM TUE WITH PASSAGE OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGH TO THE E...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR STILL EXISTS TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELL STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE TSTMS MAY MERGE INTO AN MCS TONIGHT WITH AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT PERSISTING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PNHDL INTO WRN/NWRN TX. ...RED RIVER VALLEY/ARKLATEX... RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MCV ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYED NOCTURNAL MCS ALONG THE RED RIVER NEAR ADM. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO FOSTER AN INCREASE IN TSTMS TODAY FROM THE VICINITY OF CIRCULATION CENTER OUTWARD RADIALLY ALONG EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 F YIELD MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. RECENT VAD OBSERVATIONS FROM DYESS AFB AND FT. WORTH TX INDICATE A BELT OF ENHANCED /25-35 KT/ MIDLEVEL FLOW WITHIN SRN SEMI-CIRCLE OF CIRCULATION WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL INTO THIS EVENING. ..MEAD/ROGERS.. 06/13/2012 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1655Z (11:55AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME 
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