MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0931 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...MO...AR CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 111431Z - 111530Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM PARTS OF SRN MO INTO NRN AR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LIFT ALONG MATURE MCS COLD POOL SPREADS SOUTH INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THESE AREAS. DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WERE OCCURRING WITHIN SWRN FLANK OF MATURE MCS ACROSS SWRN MO THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM EXISTS AMIDST WELL-DEFINED DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL JET WHILE LOW LEVEL ASCENT IS LIKELY BEING MAXIMIZED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE NOSE OF A 25-30KT WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. BOTH SGF AND LZK MORNING SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR ABUNDANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING AS TEMPS WARM THROUGH THE 80SF. AND..IT IS LIKELY THAT LIFT ALONG THE ADVANCING MCS COLD POOL SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NRN MO...AND CAPPING ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND WRN AR DOES INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH STORM PERSISTENCE INTO THESE AREAS...LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH ACROSS THE REGION. ..CARBIN/MEAD.. 06/11/2012 ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
No comments:
Post a Comment