MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1069 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1042 AM CDT TUE JUN 05 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN AL/FAR NORTH FL AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA TO FAR SOUTHERN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 051542Z - 051745Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST GA TO FAR SOUTHERN SC. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY 17Z-18Z. DISCUSSION...AMID RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...DUAL WEAKENING MCV/S EXIST ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING...ONE ACROSS SOUTHERN AL AND ANOTHER OVER NORTH GA PER SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THESE MCV/S...AND ALONG/SOUTH OF A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS GA/SC...TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN A PROGRESSIVELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM THROUGH THE 80S F...MODIFICATIONS TO 12Z REGIONAL OBSERVED SOUNDINGS REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE TO 1500-3000 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN GA/FAR NORTH FL. AS STORMS INCREASE/MATURE...MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY MID/HIGH LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY COLLOCATED WITH THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL ZONE...WILL SUPPORT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING TSTM CLUSTERS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF BRIEF SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONT...WITH WIND DAMAGE AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE. ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/05/2012 ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
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