MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1179 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0700 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...NW KS CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395... VALID 160000Z - 160130Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 395 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS ERN CO AND NW KS THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 395. DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING EAST OF THE LIMON AREA ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ANALYZED TO EXTEND NWD ACROSS FAR ERN CO AND WRN KS. MLCAPE VALUES ACROSS THE MCD AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...THE WSR-88D VWP AT GOODLAND SHOWS ABOUT 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 C/KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY IF THE CELLS CAN CONGEAL INTO A BOWING LINE SEGMENT LATER THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 06/16/2012 ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 40179931 40170144 40020243 39580284 39310293 38670290 38410223 38330151 38350062 38509897 39189867 39759873 40179931
No comments:
Post a Comment