MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1182 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS...FAR NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 160425Z - 160600Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD DEVELOP AS THE SRN END OF A LINE OF STORMS MOVES SEWD ACROSS SW KS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT BUT THE LINE WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR TREND CHANGES. WW ISSUANCE COULD BE NECESSARY IF THE LINE SHOWS SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION. DISCUSSION...THE SRN END OF A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN WRN KS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT. MLCAPE VALUES NEAR THE KS-OK STATELINE EXTENDING NWWD RANGE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ESTIMATED BY THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING TO BE AROUND 8.0 C/KM. IN ADDITION TO THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A 35 KT JET MAX JUST BEHIND THE LINE SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN END OF THE LINE. SOME SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE HRRR SHOW A LINEAR MCS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SW KS AND INTO NRN OK. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ..BROYLES/CARBIN.. 06/16/2012 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 38229936 38610037 38610114 38300180 37890198 37620183 37280125 37060074 36739948 36759850 37169813 37719809 38229936
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