MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1450, AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN WY...SRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1450 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0143 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN WY...SRN MT CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 111843Z - 112015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS CNTRL/NRN WY AND SRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. DISCUSSION...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AREA OF ASCENT SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN ID/SWRN MT INTO NWRN WY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ASCENT...BOUNDARY LAYER IS BECOMING WELL MIXED AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S INTO THE LOW 90S. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ID/WY BORDER CONTINUES TO BE MAINTAINED AS IT ENTERS NWRN WY...WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE CLUSTER OVER PORTIONS OF NRN WY. THOUGH BUOYANCY WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DURING THE AFTERNOON...A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH 30 KT OF MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES. ..GARNER/CARBIN.. 07/11/2012