AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH/EAST GA AND SC/FAR SOUTHERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1449 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH/EAST GA AND SC/FAR SOUTHERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 111730Z - 111930Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...AS SCATTERED TSTMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS/WIND DAMAGE AS WELL AS ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA/SC AND FAR SOUTHERN NC. DISCUSSION...MODIFIED BY NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE PRIOR 24-48 HR...A WEAK WSW-ENE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE WILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE INLAND PROGRESSING SEA BREEZE FOR COASTAL AREAS. AS TEMPERATURES HAVE STEADILY WARMED THROUGH THE 80S F IN CONJUNCTION WITH NEAR 70 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS ALREADY ESSENTIALLY NIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE EFFECTIVE FRONT. MODIFICATIONS TO 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM ATLANTA/CHARLESTON SC SUGGEST AS MUCH AS 1000-2300 J/KG OF SBCAPE EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DESTABILIZATION ACROSS COASTAL SC/EASTERN GA. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN MEAGER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A PULSE/MULTICELLUAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS/SOME HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ..GUYER/CARBIN.. 07/11/2012 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...