THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY FOR TOMORROW

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK 

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK 

 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY... ...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY... PRIMARY TSTM/ASSOCIATED SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO REFOCUS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY IN TANDEM WITH A COLD FRONT...AS EFFECTIVELY DEFINED BY THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW. THIS SOUTHWARD-SHUNTING SCENARIO WILL PROGRESSIVELY DISTANCE ANTICIPATED DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHERN TIER MID/HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES...ALTHOUGH MODERATE DESTABILIZATION /2000-3000 J PER KG MLCAPE/ IS ANTICIPATED ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT. NEAR-EFFECTIVE FRONT ASIDE...DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY DEVELOPING/INCREASING UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES NEAR THE SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT BY SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. EVEN SO...VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD ALSO BE MODEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS EVEN WHILE WINDS VEER IN THE LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE. IN ALL...A MULTICELLULAR MODE WITH BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE DOMINANT ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALTHOUGH A SUFFICIENT COLLOCATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR/MODERATE INSTABILITY NEAR THE EFFECTIVE FRONT COULD AT LEAST YIELD SOME TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ...EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST WI/WESTERN UP OF MI... AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING/EVENTUALLY AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS/STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR...WILL CROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND ADJACENT PARTS OF MN/WI/MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP/INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DESTABILIZATION MAY REMAIN MODEST OVERALL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FOR SOME STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE MULTICELLS. AS SUCH...HAVE INTRODUCED WHAT IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE A MARGINAL SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE REGION FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/SOME HAIL POTENTIAL MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..GUYER.. 06/15/2012 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1801Z (1:01PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME