THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK 

TORNADO OUTLOOK 

WIND OUTLOOK 

HAIL OUTLOOK 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS...WITH THE BAND OF STRONGEST WINDS EXTENDING ACROSS MT/ID/WY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS FROM KS/CO NORTHWARD...WHERE ONLY WEAK CAPPING IS EXPECTED. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN CO/WY SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF SD/NEB/KS DURING THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONGEST ACROSS NORTHEAST WY/WESTERN SD...AND WEAKENS WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BLACK HILLS REGION WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. A MIXTURE OF SUPERCELL/MULTICELL STRUCTURES ARE MORE LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH INTO CO/KS WHERE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HIGH LCL HEIGHTS AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SPIN-UP IS POSSIBLE. ..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF TX WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NM AND WEST TX. FULL SUNSHINE AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S WILL RESULT IN UNCAPPED MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK WITH STORMS LIKELY TO REMAIN DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ...EAST TX... REMNANT MCVS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ARE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN OK/NORTH CENTRAL TX. THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...BUT MAY RESULT IN RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. DEWPOINTS ACROSS EAST TX ARE IN THE MID 70S WITH HIGH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS WEAK AND AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES. NEVERTHELESS...THOSE STORMS THAT FORM MAY POSE A RISK FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. ...UPPER MIDWEST... ANOTHER REMNANT MCV IS PRESENT OVER WESTERN IA. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF THE MCV...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ...FL PENINSULA... STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA WHERE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT. SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS /ESPECIALLY THE WEST COAST/ WHERE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL WINDS IS SLOWLY ADVECTING DRIER AIR INTO REGION WHICH MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBS FOR TODAY. ..HART/MOSIER.. 06/15/2012 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1640Z (11:40AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME