| Categorical Graphic |
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| Probabilistic Graphic |
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| Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point. |
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 2
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2012
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THU AFTN AND THU NIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...
CORRECTED TYPOS
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CYCLONE
PROGRESS AROUND ITS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CANADA...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PROMINENT THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S...FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THROUGH THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FEATURE...MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO RESULT IN CONTINUED LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT
REGION...SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT A
DEVELOPING MONSOONAL REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON ITS WESTERN/NORTHERN PERIPHERY...ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH TO ITS EAST
AND SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MOIST TO
THE SOUTH/WEST OF A FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST STATES.
...EASTERN U.S...
A SOMEWHAT COOLER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WITH WEAKER
INHIBITION...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE HIGH CENTER APPEARS LIKELY TO
RESULT IN HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATIONS FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO COINCIDE
WITH A BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME ON LIGHT NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WITH FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PERHAPS
ENHANCED BY A SOUTHWARD MIGRATING HIGH-LEVEL IMPULSE. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...BUT STRONG HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MODERATELY LARGE CAPE OF 2000-3000+
J/KG...WHILE CONTRIBUTING TO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR
LOCALIZED STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND SURFACE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT.
POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND EVENT APPEARS LOW...BUT IT IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SEVERAL EXPANDING CLUSTERS OF STORMS THAT COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...WITH LIGHT
DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW SUPPORTING A TENDENCY TO PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST.
...ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONG CANADIAN IMPULSE MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...INHIBITION ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL
REMAIN STRONG...AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO EXIST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE ROCKIES.
MODELS APPEAR FAIRLY SIMILAR IN INDICATING THAT AT LEAST ONE
SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WITHIN THE MONSOONAL REGIME WILL
MIGRATE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AND CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE FORCING FOR THE EVOLUTION OF A
GROWING CLUSTER OF STORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY
LINGERS CONCERNING AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE... BUT STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SIZABLE SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE-DEW POINT SPREADS AND MODEST
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.
..KERR.. 07/04/2012
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1749Z (12:49PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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