MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1388
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AL / SRN MIDDLE TN / NRN GA / WRN NC / UPSTATE
SC
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 041802Z - 041900Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCTD TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. PULSE
STRONG TO LOW-END SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLD POCKETS OF
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE/RADAR/SURFACE COMPOSITE SHOWS A GROWING CU
FIELD WITH SCTD STORMS DEVELOPING AS TEMPS WARM THRU THE 80S IN THE
SRN APPALACHIANS AND WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEG F FARTHER W
OVER NRN AL. THIS HAS LED TO VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITHIN A VERY WEAK WIND PROFILE --INDICATIVE OF A PULSE TSTM
ENVIRONMENT. MODIFYING THE 12Z BMX/FFC RAOBS FOR MID 90S TEMPS WITH
A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINT IN THE LOWER 60S YIELDS
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. WITH PW VALUES IN THE 1.5-1.8 INCH
RANGE...COLLAPSING TSTM CORES VIA WATER LOADING WILL PROBABLY YIELD
ISOLD POCKETS OF WIND GUSTS 45-60 MPH CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE.
..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 07/04/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 35268161 34328243 33448519 33448830 34168859 35338728
35388431 36018207 35768158 35268161
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