THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEST TO NORTHEAST AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WA AND ID FOR THE REST OF TODAY

Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 092002
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2012
   
   VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
   ATLANTIC COAST WEST TO NORTHEAST AL...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WA AND ID...
   
   20Z OUTLOOK WILL INTRODUCE A 5 PERCENT WIND PROB ACROSS CENTRAL FL
   WHERE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STG WIND
   GUSTS. WITH AN AXIS OF STRONG DCAPE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
   PENINSULA...THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN THIS PULSE-SVR ENVIRONMENT
   WILL POSE A RISK OF SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE
   AFTERNOON AS CELLS COLLAPSE.  
   
   SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
   THROUGH AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SEA
   BREEZE AND STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS INITIATE NEW CONVECTION.
   INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED OVER CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NC NORTHWARD INTO
   SOUTHERN VA...WHICH IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID
   LEVEL FLOW AND WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS EXISTS. A MIX OF
   MULTICELL/ISOLATED SUPERCELL MODES IS EXPECTED WITH AN ATTENDANT
   THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
   
   FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...WEAKER VERTICAL
   SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A PULSE-TYPE SVR ENVIRONMENT WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
   
   ACROSS INLAND PAC NW...DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING DESPITE PRESENCE
   OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...AND STILL EXPECT ISOLATED SVR TSTMS TO
   DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ADJUSTED 5 PERCENT WIND/HAIL PROBS
   SOUTHWARD OVER ID WHERE ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
   
   ADJUSTED GENERAL THUNDER LINE ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS IA/IL
   BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE/LIGHTNING TRENDS.
   
   ..BUNTING.. 07/09/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT MON JUL 09 2012/
   
   ...MID ATLC REGION SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WWD INTO NRN AL...
   ONGOING SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED WWD TO INCLUDE NRN AL/GA.
   REGION WILL RESIDE ALONG SRN FRINGE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE
   NERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONGEST WLY MIDLVL FLOW RELEGATED
   TO AREAS FROM VA/KY NWD.  THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE
   WEAKER END OF THE SCALE...INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER ROBUST.
   
   VSB SATL SHOWS A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY COINCIDENT WITH AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WWD INTO THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS/NRN AL.  ALOFT...FEATURES WILL BE WEAK AT BEST...BUT AS
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM AND WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE
   INCREASES...WDLY SCTD TSTMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
   AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN.  FCST
   DCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...OWING TO 90S SFC TEMPS AND LWR/MID 70S
   DEW POINTS...WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO PULSE TYPE MULTICELLS WITH WET
   MICROBURST POTENTIAL AND SOME HAIL.  HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
   SHOULD BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS FROM LATE AFTN INTO THE
   MID EVENING HOURS.
   
   ...ERN WA/NRN ID...
   REGION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK.  A MIDLVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   WAS MOVING NWD AT ABOUT 20 KTS THROUGH ERN ORE LATE THIS MORNING AND
   IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ERN WA/NRN ID THIS AFTN.  NUMEROUS TSTMS
   ALREADY EXIST WITH THIS FEATURE AND STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW STRONGER
   IN THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES 1000-2000
   J/KG.  ENHANCED SWLY MIDLVL FLOW WILL BOOST DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
   35-40 KTS WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS
   WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS.
   
   ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY...
   LOW-LEVEL ASCENT NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AMIDST A BROAD
   AREA OF RICH DEEP MOISTURE -- PW VALUES OF 1.80-2.15 INCHES -- AND
   MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
   THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FOSTER A
   PREDOMINANTLY PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY
   REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 2009Z (3:09PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME