MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1444, AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST VA/EASTERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST VA/EASTERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483...

VALID 092048Z - 092215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/SOME HAIL POTENTIAL CONTINUES
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA AND
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PORTIONS OF NC. SEVERE TSTM WATCH 483 CONTINUES
UNTIL 02Z.

DISCUSSION...IN GENERAL PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE BOUNDARY/WEAK SURFACE
LOW...STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WITHIN A WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME /15 KT OR LESS 0-6 KM PER
WSR-88D VWPS/...MUCH OF THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN OUTFLOW DOMINANT
WITH CELL/OUTFLOW MERGERS LEADING TO PULSE-TYPE STRONG/OCCASIONALLY
SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS/PERIODIC HAIL ESPECIALLY WITHIN A
CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN NC.

FARTHER NORTH...OTHER RELATIVELY MORE SUSTAINED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO GENERALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/FAR NORTHEAST NC
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO
BE 1500-2500 J/KG. THESE STORMS COINCIDE WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER
VERTICAL SHEAR AS PER THE WAKEFIELD WSR-88D /AROUND 30 KT 0-6 KM/.
THIS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SUSTAINED MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS
A FEW BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS STORMS GENERALLY PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/FAR
NORTHEAST NC.

..GUYER.. 07/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...