THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MID-MO VALLEY FOR TOMORROW

Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 121727
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2012
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY AND MID-MO VALLEY...
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/MID-MO VALLEY...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON
   FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE MORNING...A BELT OF
   ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS ERN MN AND NRN WI
   WITH ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH ABOUT
   MIDDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SEWD ACROSS MN
   EXTENDING SWWD INTO NERN NEB ALONG WHICH SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FOCUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   FROM SEVERAL MODELS ALONG THE FRONT AT 00Z/SAT SHOW MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 20 TO
   30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE
   THREAT WITH MULTICELLS THAT INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE
   WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY ENHANCED IF A BOWING LINE
   SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE ALONG THE FRONT.
   
   ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NRN ROCKIES...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SWD ACROSS WRN WA
   FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ARE FORECAST FROM
   SW ID TO SE WA WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING NWD ACROSS NE WA
   AND EWD ACROSS WRN MT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE SEE TEXT AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/SAT SHOW 20 TO 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT FROM LATE FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   ...NRN MAINE...
   A SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
   ON FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...THE MODELS DEVELOP A POCKET OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN MAINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
   THUNDERSTORM INITIATION APPEARS MOST PROBABLE IN NRN MAINE WHERE THE
   CENTER OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NRN MAINE AT 21Z GENERALLY SHOW 20 TO 30 KT OF
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS COULD
   DEVELOP. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE
   THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE ACTIVITY.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/12/2012
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1730Z (12:30PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME