MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1453, AREAS AFFECTED...SERN-NWRN AZ...SRN NV...PORTIONS OF SERN CA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1453     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0135 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...SERN-NWRN AZ...SRN NV...PORTIONS OF SERN CA          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY           VALID 121835Z - 122000Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT          SUMMARY...A CLUSTER OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO EMANATE OFF OF THE     MOGOLLON RIM INVOF FLG AND MOVE W-NWWD TOWARD THE LWR CO RIVER     VALLEY OF SRN NV AND SERN CA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH     THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER S OVER SRN PORTIONS OF AZ...ISOLATED TO     SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE     AFTERNOON. A FEW MAY POSE AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SVR WEATHER THREAT.          DISCUSSION...MID-DAY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER DISTURBANCE     OVER NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH A 20-35 KT MIDLEVEL ELY JET     POSITIONED OVER SRN/CNTRL AZ INTO SRN CA. VERY MOIST SURFACE     AIRMASS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...RESIDES OVER SRN PORTIONS     OF THE LWR CO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS     IN THE 50S AND 60S LOCATED FROM SERN AZ INTO SRN NV. WITH MOSTLY     CLEAR SKIES OCCURRING OVER CNTRL AZ...SURFACE HEATING OVER THE     ELEVATED TERRAIN OF THE MOGOLLON RIM HAS AIDED IN STRONG BOUNDARY     LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.     DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS LAPSE RATE SOURCE...A MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER     ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG. THIS     ENVIRONMENT HAS FOSTERED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT 15 SE OF     FLG DURING THE LAST HR...AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES     ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM IN AND AROUND THE FLG AREA SOON. GIVEN     THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS DEVELOPING     ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS ENHANCED MIDLEVEL ELYS...STORMS MAY MERGE INTO     A CLUSTER AND MOVE W-NWWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSING A THREAT FOR     ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE     EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SRN AZ AS WELL. HERE...A MODERATELY DRY     SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD AN ISOLATED STRONG/SVR WIND     THREAT...AS WELL AS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.          ..GARNER/CARBIN.. 07/12/2012               ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...          LAT...LON   32031316 33841463 36281572 36941406 35351163 32450941                 31450936 31341104 32031316