THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS FOR TOMORROW

Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 111710
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1210 PM CDT WED JUL 11 2012
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
   PLAINS...
   
   ...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
   AND NRN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO
   THE NCNTRL STATES. A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST AHEAD
   OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
   IN THE NRN PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST
   TO MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN ND THURSDAY AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES
   SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR
   SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F
   WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IN
   ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT 21Z
   FRIDAY SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH STEEP LOW AND
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
   LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE
   IN THE STRONGER CELLS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
   
   FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS WRN NEB AND NE CO...THE MODELS
   DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
   SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS
   SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL.
   
   ...TN VALLEY/ERN GULF COAST STATES/CAROLINAS...
   A BROAD MOIST WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE IN PLACE THURSDAY FROM THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. AS SFC TEMPS WARM...DEWPOINTS
   AROUND 70 F SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH PULSE STORMS
   THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/11/2012
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1714Z (12:14PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME