DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK: CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS AND THE SERN STATES

Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 101720
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
   ON WEDNESDAY WITH WLY FLOW LOCATED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EWD TO
   THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
   SEWD ACROSS ERN MT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY
   EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE WRN DAKOTAS AT
   00Z/THU ALONG THE FRONT SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY...20 TO 30 KT OF
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 C/KM. THIS
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
   MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON. A SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WWD ACROSS THE
   POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP AND THE MODELS
   DEVELOP POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
   WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IN
   WRN ND WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS COULD APPROACH 60 F.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   A BROAD WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY FROM THE ARKLATEX
   EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS. SOME
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY AT 12Z. AS SFC
   TEMPS WARM DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SFC-BASED
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN AREAS WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES
   MAXIMIZED AND ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   SHOULD BE ENHANCED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
   ACROSS THE SEE TEXT AREA GENERALLY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO
   2000 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES BELOW 20 KT. THIS SHOULD
   KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL. A THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS
   SHOULD EXIST WITH PULSE STORMS THAT DEVELOP WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES BECOME VERY STEEP IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/10/2012
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1732Z (12:32PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME