SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL 700 PM CDT

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 454
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 AM CDT MON JUL 2 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          NORTHERN MINNESOTA
          FAR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1145 AM UNTIL 700
   PM CDT.
   
   HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF
   GRAND FORKS NORTH DAKOTA TO 85 MILES EAST OF BEMIDJI MINNESOTA. 
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS THAT HAVE BEEN PERCOLATING ALL MORNING
   OVER CNTRL/NRN ND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SFC BASED THIS AFTN AS
   BOUNDARY LAYER HEATS AMIDST LWR 70S DEW POINTS.  INITIAL ACTIVITY
   WILL LIKELY ATTAIN SUPERCELL CHARACTER AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-40
   KTS EXISTS ALONG WITH VERY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES.  VERY LARGE
   HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT.  MEANWHILE...AS COLD POOLS CONGLOMERATE LATER THIS AFTN
   AND EVE...ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO A BOW ECHO OVER NRN
   MN.  HERE...4000 J/KG MLCAPE...AT LEAST 40 KTS OF WLY MID-LVL FLOW
   AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER INFLOW SUGGEST THAT DMGG WIND GUSTS
   WILL PRIMARY SVR THREAT WITH CORRIDORS OF SIG WIND PSBL.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 26035.