THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT MON JUL 02 2012
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE AFTN AND EVE ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
   LAKES...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE NRN PLAINS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED
   THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  A BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES LIKELY
   WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER
   AREA...CURVING IN A BROAD CYCLONIC BELT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
   THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
   PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHEASTERN U.S...BEFORE SPLITTING IN BROAD TROUGHING OVER EASTERN
   CANADA...THE NORTHEASTERN U.S..AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC. 
   WITHIN THIS REGIME...A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
   FORECAST TO MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATER
   TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO ALBERTA AND
   SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...A SIGNIFICANT DOWNSTREAM
   IMPULSE APPEARS LIKELY TO DIG ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
   THE SOUTHERN HUDSON/JAMES BAY REGION...WHILE A TRAILING
   IMPULSE...EMERGING FROM A SUBTROPICAL STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
   GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC STATES...
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STABILIZED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
   DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.  AND MODEST
   NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW DOES APPEAR LIKELY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
    HOWEVER...GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   INCREASE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH...AND MAY YIELD
   MODERATE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
   STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING.  WHILE THE RISK FOR THE EVOLUTION OF
   LARGE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS APPEARS LOW...  THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A HOT AND RELATIVELY
   DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS PROBABLY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO
   DOWNBURSTS WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS WITH SCATTERED
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT. 
   
   ...GREAT LAKES REGION...
   UNCERTAINTIES DO LINGER CONCERNING THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
   SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE OR IMPULSES EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION
   TUESDAY...AND THE EXTENT OF ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH
   MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE
   OUTSET OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...MODEST STRENGTHENING OF DEEP LAYER
   WESTERLY MEAN FLOW FIELDS /ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT OR SO/ MAY
   ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES...ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OF A FRONTAL WAVE
   FORECAST TO MIGRATE ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.  THIS...COUPLED WITH
   THE ANTICIPATED DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATELY LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE
   BENEATH MODESTLY STEEP MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MAY BECOME CONDUCIVE
   TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE
   OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
   WISCONSIN...EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN LOWER
   MICHIGAN.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
   ONTARIO AND TO THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
   OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHEN INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF A CONTINUING
   SEVERE THREAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
   
   ...NORTHERN PLAINS...
   VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR WILL PROVIDE POTENTIALLY STRONG
   INHIBITION...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT OF
   THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. 
   HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT MOISTENING BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO CONTRIBUTE TO
   MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...WHICH COULD SUPPORT SCATTERED STRONG/ SEVERE
   STORMS ALONG THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF
   WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO EASTERN MONTANA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 
   IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LOWER/ MID TROPOSPHERIC
   WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING  SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
   JET COULD SUPPORT MORE SUBSTANTIAL ACTIVITY ...INCLUDING AN
   ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CLUSTER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
   NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/02/2012
   
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