CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK
TORNADO OUTLOOK
WIND OUTLOOK
HAIL OUTLOOK
SPC AC 061626 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CDT WED JUN 06 2012 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ND AND NRN SD... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED REMAIN OVER THE NWRN US AS ONE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX OVER CENTRAL MT LIFTS NWD INTO CANADA...AND AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER OREGON MOVES INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY OCCLUDED LOW OVER SRN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE NWD...WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARCING SWD ACROSS EXTREME NERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS THEN SWWD INTO CENTRAL CO. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY MAY MOVE WWD INTO SERN WY AND NORTH CENTRAL CO AS PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOIST UPSLOPE SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING INTO THE FRONT RANGE. WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND STRONG DIABATIC HEATING EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL DESTABILIZE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE FRONT RANGE INTO PARTS OF SERN WY AND THE NEB PANHANDLE NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE SRN/ERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SRN GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL CO WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE STORM ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS TO DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS THAT MAY DEVELOP. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD/NEWD THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 03Z. ...NRN PLAINS... ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE AREA...MESOSCALE ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER WRN/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WILL RESULT IN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS/MINIMAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE AREA...A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...SRN PLAINS... STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NWRN TX...WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDS CURRENTLY OVER PARTS OF THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CENTRAL OK. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND FOCUSED MESOSCALE LIFT ALONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES WILL FOSTER NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER CELLS TO PRODUCE HAIL AND POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...SRN GA/NRN FL... VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER OVER SRN GA AND NRN FL BENEATH THE EDGE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD INTO NRN FL. THIS WILL ENHANCE LOCAL AREAS OF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIALLY SUPPORT STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEST FLOW ALOFT/VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..WEISS/COHEN.. 06/06/2012 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1730Z (12:30PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME 
No comments:
Post a Comment