MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0849 AM CDT WED JUN 06 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 061349Z - 061545Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE PLAINVIEW/LUBBOCK AREAS AND SURROUNDING I-27 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED SUCH THAT A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS UNLIKELY. POTENTIALLY OF MORE CONCERN...HEAVY/TRAINING RAINFALL...WITH RATES LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1 IN/HR...WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. DISCUSSION...ON THE IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY OF A NEARLY-STALLED/SLOW-MOVING PERSISTENT MCV OVER NORTHWEST TX/TX PANHANDLE...STRONG TO SEVERE CALIBER UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP/TRAIN WITHIN A NNW-SSE ORIENTED CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING. LIKELY PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODEST CAPE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS COMPLEX IS SUPPORTING STOUT WESTERN-FLANK UPDRAFTS...INCLUDING A TRANSIENT ELEVATED SUPERCELL OR TWO AS PER WEST OF THE PLAINVIEW AREA AS OF 1330Z. SUCH A SCENARIO WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AT LEAST ON A SHORT-TERM/ISOLATED BASIS. LOCALLY HEAVY/TRAINING RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN AS WELL ACROSS THE I-27 CORRIDOR INCLUDING AREAS NEAR AND NORTH/EAST OF LUBBOCK. THAT SAID...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN SUCH THAT RAINFALL RATES SHOULD ABATE BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. ..GUYER/WEISS.. 06/06/2012 ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF... LAT...LON 34920218 34450170 32860106 33220185 34920218 "INFORMS YOU ON WEATHER" THIS BLOG WILL INFORM ON WEATHER MOSTLY FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ALSO MOST AREAS DURRING SEVERE WEATHER.
Wednesday, June 6, 2012
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083
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