Wednesday, June 6, 2012

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083





        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1083     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0849 AM CDT WED JUN 06 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY           VALID 061349Z - 061545Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT          SUMMARY...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE     PLAINVIEW/LUBBOCK AREAS AND SURROUNDING I-27 CORRIDOR THIS     MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN     MARGINAL/ISOLATED SUCH THAT A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS UNLIKELY.     POTENTIALLY OF MORE CONCERN...HEAVY/TRAINING RAINFALL...WITH RATES     LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF 1 IN/HR...WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.          DISCUSSION...ON THE IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY OF A     NEARLY-STALLED/SLOW-MOVING PERSISTENT MCV OVER NORTHWEST TX/TX     PANHANDLE...STRONG TO SEVERE CALIBER UPDRAFTS CONTINUE TO     REDEVELOP/TRAIN WITHIN A NNW-SSE ORIENTED CORRIDOR ACROSS THE     SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE/TX SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING. LIKELY PRESENCE     OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODEST CAPE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS     COMPLEX IS SUPPORTING STOUT WESTERN-FLANK UPDRAFTS...INCLUDING A     TRANSIENT ELEVATED SUPERCELL OR TWO AS PER WEST OF THE PLAINVIEW     AREA AS OF 1330Z. SUCH A SCENARIO WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY     SEVERE HAIL AT LEAST ON A SHORT-TERM/ISOLATED BASIS. LOCALLY     HEAVY/TRAINING RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN AS WELL ACROSS THE I-27     CORRIDOR INCLUDING AREAS NEAR AND NORTH/EAST OF LUBBOCK. THAT     SAID...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL     SLOWLY WEAKEN SUCH THAT RAINFALL RATES SHOULD ABATE BY LATE     MORNING/MIDDAY.          ..GUYER/WEISS.. 06/06/2012               ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...          LAT...LON   34920218 34450170 32860106 33220185 34920218      

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