SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LAKE HURON LAKE MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 550 PM UNTIL 100 AM EDT

     URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 407     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     550 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2012          THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A     SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF                  NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN            LAKE HURON            LAKE MICHIGAN          EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 550 PM     UNTIL 100 AM EDT.          HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70     MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.          THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70     STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF     PELLSTON MICHIGAN TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF HOUGHTON LAKE     MICHIGAN.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE     ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).          REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE     FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH     AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR     THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS     AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY     DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.          OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 406...          DISCUSSION...STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT     WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN LOWER MI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE     THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION HAS     HAD TIME TO DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF MORNING STORMS AND THIS     SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION NOW CROSSING NRN LAKE MI TO REMAIN     RELATIVELY INTENSE.  ANTECEDENT SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT     PERSISTENCE AND FAST STORM MOTIONS CONFIRMS STORM-SCALE GUIDANCE     THAT IS REMARKABLY CONSISTENT IN MAINTAINING WELL-ORGANIZED STORMS     EAST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE     STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS FROM THIS ACTIVITY APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY     HAZARD...ANY DISCRETE CELLS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY FOR     STRONGER ROTATION WITH A FEW  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE REGION     INDICATING POCKETS OF GREATER LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE THAT     COULD RESULT IN A TORNADO...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.          AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT     TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60     KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM     MOTION VECTOR 26035.               ...CARBIN