MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1210, AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH INTO PARTS OF SW PA AND WEST VIRGINIA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1210     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0513 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH INTO PARTS OF SW PA AND WEST VIRGINIA          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY           VALID 182213Z - 182345Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT          SUMMARY...LOW RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY CONTINUE WITH     SOUTHWARD ADVANCING CLUSTER OF STORMS THRU MID EVENING.          DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY HAVE BEEN     OBSERVED...THE SMALL BUT ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS     MAINTAINING INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES ZANESVILLE AND ADJACENT AREAS     OF SOUTHEASTERN OHIO.  MODEST SOUTHERLY INFLOW OF MOIST BOUNDARY     LAYER AIR /LIKELY WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500+ J PER KG/ IS     SUPPORTING ACTIVITY...WHICH MAY NOT WEAKEN FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER FEW     HOURS.  HOWEVER...LITTLE IS SUGGESTIVE TO INDICATE SUBSTANTIVE     FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT     LOW...BUT OCCASIONAL MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS     APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS MAY PERSIST AS     ACTIVITY PROPAGATES SOUTHWARD AROUND 25-30 KTS...ACROSS THE OHIO     RIVER INTO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH 00-02Z.          ..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/18/2012               ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...ILN...          LAT...LON   40158123 40338078 39898032 39138020 38668069 38478176                 38688235 39168257 39848252 40018244 39978197 40158123