SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1178     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0651 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...FAR E-CNTRL NM...W-CNTRL TX          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY           VALID 152351Z - 160115Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT          SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY     BOWING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AS IT MOVES EWD INTO W-CNTRL TX TONIGHT.     WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.          DISCUSSION...AT 2345Z...COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A BOWING     THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING EWD AT AROUND 30 KT OVER FAR E-CNTRL NM.     OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE INDICATES A LARGE RESERVOIR OF VERY     UNSTABLE AIR RESIDES AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER W-CNTRL INTO NWRN     TX...WITH MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-3000 J/KG. THIS     INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LLJ INCREASING TO 20-30 KT DURING THE NEXT     FEW HOURS WILL FAVOR MCS MAINTENANCE INTO PART OF THE NIGHT. PRIMARY     NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR WEATHER THREAT IS     RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /0-6 KM BULK WIND DIFFERENCE     NEAR 20 KT/...AS DEPICTED IN LBB VWP AND JTN PROFILER.     THUS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SVR WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN     ISOLATED AND PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.          ..GARNER/CARBIN.. 06/15/2012               ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...          LAT...LON   34650368 35030253 34880132 34230077 33070089 32430187                 32470305 32870374 33670399 34650368