MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225, AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CNTRL SD...WRN NEB AND PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1225     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0850 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/S-CNTRL SD...WRN NEB AND PANHANDLE          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE           VALID 200150Z - 200315Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT          SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INITIATE AND     SPREAD EWD OUT OF FAR ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE/SWRN SD INTO PORTIONS OF     WRN NEB AND S-CNTRL SD TONIGHT. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY     THIS ACTIVITY. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.          DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY AT 0130Z SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE     TROUGH MOVING E ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN. IN RESPONSE TO THIS     DISTURBANCE...LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS ARE     BECOMING MORE ELY...WHICH WILL AID IN WWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE     TOWARD THE EDGE OF THE EML. THIS MOISTENING COMBINED WITH STEEP     MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /REFER TO 00Z LBF RAOB/ IS FORECAST TO RESULT     IN INCREASING MUCAPE VALUES /RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J PER KG/ ROOTED     NEAR 700 MB. AS LOW TO MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF     THE UPR TROUGH...BANDS OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP     ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG MIDLEVEL SWLYS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION     WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EFFECTIVE BULK WIND DIFFERENCE VALUES IN EXCESS     OF 50 KT...WHICH WILL FAVOR ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING     LARGE HAIL. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.          ..GARNER/CARBIN.. 06/20/2012               ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...          LAT...LON   42999951 41650080 41270213 41400344 42110407 43490360                 43910132 43669988 42999951