MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1088     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0339 PM CDT WED JUN 06 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL SD/WEST-CENTRAL ND          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE           VALID 062039Z - 062245Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT          SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS     LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL     SD/WEST-CENTRAL ND. SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE     POSSIBLE. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS MARGINAL...OR AT LEAST     UNCERTAIN...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.          DISCUSSION...CONVERGENCE HAS READILY INCREASED SINCE EARLY THIS     AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SD INTO ND...WITH     AN ASSOCIATED UPSWING IN CUMULUS/INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT     NEAR/JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN NORTH-CENTRAL SD AS OF     2015Z. WITH A WARM AND RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /NEAR 60 F     SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...THE ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS HAS BECOME     WEAKLY CAPPED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF     1000-1500 J/KG. WHILE MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS ESPECIALLY WEAK IN     PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...A STEEP LAPSE RATE/MODERATE     BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR MULTICELLS     CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS LATE THIS     AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.          ..GUYER/WEISS.. 06/06/2012               ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...