Tuesday, June 5, 2012

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1072





        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1072     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0220 PM CDT TUE JUN 05 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OK AND TX PANHANDLE          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY           VALID 051920Z - 052045Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT          SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE     REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG     WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN     SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED THAT A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.          DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF AN MCV     WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH     PLAINS. THIS AREA IS ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT RESULTING FROM     DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE A BELT OF STRONGER     MID LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS EXISTS AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST KAMA VWP.     THIS SETUP MAY LEAD TO ORGANIZED WESTWARD-MOVING MULTICELL STORMS     POSING A RISK OF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE     AFTN.           THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED TO PRECLUDE A     WW.          ..BUNTING/MEAD.. 06/05/2012               ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... 

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