MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1057 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0545 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MT...ID...ERN ORE/WA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352... VALID 042245Z - 050015Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...MOST INTENSE DISCRETE CELLS WITH A HISTORY OF REPORTED SEVERE HAIL WILL PROGRESS FROM WW 352 INTO NEWLY ISSUED WW 354 IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG PACIFIC FRONTAL ZONE WITH AN INCREASING SEVERE WIND THREAT EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. DISCUSSION...SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE YIELDED REPORTS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS FAR W-CNTRL MT. VWP DATA FROM MISSOULA INDICATES VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR WITH A STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPH WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BOTH LEFT/RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY WHICH WAS REASONABLY WELL DEPICTED BY CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO WW 354...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INITIATE OVER THE SAWTOOTH MTNS. FARTHER WEST...CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE FROM THE ID PANHANDLE TO WRN NV...SHOULD INTENSIFY AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN CA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIKELY COMPARATIVELY WEAKER VERSUS FARTHER EAST...THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SLYS ALONG WITH THE DEGREE OF FORCING ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING SEVERE WIND THREAT. ..GRAMS.. 06/04/2012 ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... "INFORMS YOU ON WEATHER" THIS BLOG WILL INFORM ON WEATHER MOSTLY FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ALSO MOST AREAS DURRING SEVERE WEATHER.
Monday, June 4, 2012
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1057
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