Monday, June 4, 2012

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1057





        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1057     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0545 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...WRN MT...ID...ERN ORE/WA          CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352...          VALID 042245Z - 050015Z          THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 352     CONTINUES.          SUMMARY...MOST INTENSE DISCRETE CELLS WITH A HISTORY OF REPORTED     SEVERE HAIL WILL PROGRESS FROM WW 352 INTO NEWLY ISSUED WW 354 IN     THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD INTENSIFY ALONG     PACIFIC FRONTAL ZONE WITH AN INCREASING SEVERE WIND THREAT EXPECTED     BY EARLY EVENING.          DISCUSSION...SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS WITH PERSISTENT SUPERCELL     STRUCTURES HAVE YIELDED REPORTS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS FAR     W-CNTRL MT. VWP DATA FROM MISSOULA INDICATES VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER     SPEED SHEAR WITH A STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPH WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO     SUPPORT BOTH LEFT/RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS. THIS ACTIVITY WHICH WAS     REASONABLY WELL DEPICTED BY CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE     SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND INTO WW     354...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INITIATE OVER THE     SAWTOOTH MTNS.          FARTHER WEST...CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...ANALYZED AT THE     SURFACE FROM THE ID PANHANDLE TO WRN NV...SHOULD INTENSIFY AS     MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH     OVER NRN CA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LIKELY COMPARATIVELY WEAKER     VERSUS FARTHER EAST...THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SLYS ALONG WITH     THE DEGREE OF FORCING ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING SEVERE     WIND THREAT.          ..GRAMS.. 06/04/2012               ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT...  

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