MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1056 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0506 PM CDT MON JUN 04 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AND E-CNTRL AR INTO NERN LA AND NERN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 042206Z - 050000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS STORMS TRACK SEWD. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SVR WW. DISCUSSION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER SERN INTO E-CNTRL AR WERE ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV AND MOVING TOWARD THE SE THIS AFTERNOON. 21Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A COMPARABLE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS ALSO NOTED ON LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS SRN AR INTO CNTRL MS. AS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX CONTINUES TO INGEST WARM/UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR IT SEEMS LIKELY IT WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS GIVEN SUPPORT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MCV AS WELL AS DUE TO INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FURTHER SE ACROSS NRN LA INTO CNTRL MS ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KT. IT APPEARS AT LEAST A WEAK COLD POOL IS BEING GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW 70S NEAR LIT AND THIS TOO WILL HELP MAINTAIN SEWD PROGRESSION. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT. ADDITIONALLY...PW VALUES FROM 1.2-1.4 INCHES MAY ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SVR WW ISSUANCE. ..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 06/04/2012 ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
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