CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK
TORNADO OUTLOOK
WIND OUTLOOK
HAIL OUTLOOK
SPC AC 311630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2012 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH...TN...AND LOWER MS VALLEY SWWD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN TX... ...OH VALLEY INTO LOWER MS VALLEY... SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AS A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SERN MO TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD...WHILE A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN TX WILL MOVE SEWD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG CLOSE TO THE WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH SWD EXTENT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 70S IN LA RESULTING IN MUCAPE TO 3000 J/KG. STORMS HAVE INCREASED OVER SERN TX/SWRN LA AS THE SRN PART OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM ERN TX...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN PARTS OF LA IN THE WEAKLY CAPPED AND QUITE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SUFFICIENT SHEAR /25-30 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ IS PRESENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FARTHER NORTH INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF TWO MCV/S...ONE LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AR...AND THE OTHER INDICATED OVER EAST CENTRAL MO. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FROM SRN IND/FAR SRN IL INTO THE MID SOUTH WILL PROMOTE STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. AS THE SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE AND SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD WITH ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE LINES FORMING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HAIL. THERE MAY ALSO BE A LOCALLY ENHANCED THREAT FOR SEVERAL TORNADOES /MAINLY NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT/ THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...CENTRAL/SRN TX... COMPLEX MESOSCALE PATTERN HAS EVOLVED WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/GRAVITY WAVE-LIKE FEATURES PROPAGATING SWD IN ADVANCE OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. ELEVATED STORMS ARE SPREADING SWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TX AND MAY HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF SUBSEQUENT STORMS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT GIVEN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...ANY STORM CLUSTERS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...SRN CO/NRN NM... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND POST-FRONTAL DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S WILL YIELD A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITHIN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BE AUGMENTED BY THE SEWD PROGRESSION OF A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE...GIVING RISE TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 30-35 KT OF DEEP NWLY SHEAR...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING. ..WEISS/HURLBUT.. 05/31/2012 NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 1708Z (12:08PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME 
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