MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0995 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1202 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN TN...BOOTHEEL OF MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 311702Z - 311800Z CORRECTED FOR AREAL DESCRIPTION PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN AR AND NRN MS...WITH DMGG WINDS AND HAIL LIKELY AS CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. DISCUSSION...A LINGERING MCV FROM EARLIER CONVECTION NOTED S OF LITTLE ROCK WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD...GRADUALLY INITIATING NEW CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF STABILITY...THE MCV IS APPROACHING AN AREA THAT REMAINS MOIST AND HAS BEEN DESTABILIZING AMIDST AMPLE SURFACE HEATING. ADDITIONAL REINFORCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT OVER ERN AR CONTINUES EWD COINCIDENT WITH THE MCV. FARTHER S...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE...WITHIN THE MOIST/UNSTABLE SECTOR. THESE STORMS MAY APPROACH THE EDGE OF WW327 SHORTLY...AND A NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED DOWNSTREAM. THE 12Z JAN SOUNDING INDICATES MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WITH STEEPING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS. DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...POSSIBLY LEADING TO A MORE ORGANIZED THREAT WITH TIME. ..HURLBUT/WEISS.. 05/31/2012 ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
No comments:
Post a Comment