MODERATE RISK NOW TAKES UP ALMOST ALL OF OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS FOR TOMORROW

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK 

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK 

   SPC AC 291651          DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK       NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     1151 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012          VALID 301200Z - 311200Z          ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF SCNTRL KS     ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF OK...          ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK REGION     FROM SWRN NEB TOWARD THE ARKLATEX...          ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...          NWLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS BY     LATE AFTERNOON WITH SRN CURRENT OF SPLIT FLOW REGIME EXPECTED TO BE     SUPPRESSED TOWARD THE U.S./MEXICAN BORDER AS BROAD HEIGHT FALLS ARE     EXPECTED.  BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH     WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AROUND     18Z...WITH FAVORABLE LATE AFTERNOON TIMING FOR CONVECTIVE SUPPORT     ACROSS KS/OK.  LARGE SCALE PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER     FOR MULTIPLE SEVERE TSTM CLUSTERS THAT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGE     MCS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS OK.          EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG THE NRN-ERN     PLUME OF EML FROM PORTIONS OF KS INTO ERN OK.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD     BE ELEVATED IN NATURE BUT WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO COOLER ELY LOW     LEVEL COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MAY     BIFURCATE THE OUTLOOK AREA.  WHILE IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR     WEST STABILIZATION WILL BE OBSERVED...IT APPEARS THE LACK OF     MEANINGFUL CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING UPSTREAM ACROSS NWRN TX WILL ALLOW     FOR UNOBSTRUCTED MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE     ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WRN OK INTO SWRN KS.  THIS WILL BE     THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON INITIATION AS STRONG HEATING WILL PROVE MORE     THAN ADEQUATE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE     APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE     HIGHER THAN THE NAM INDICATES ALONG THE DRYLINE AND AN AXIS OF     MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY INTENSE     UPDRAFTS THAT WILL BE PARTIAL TO STORM ROTATION AND ORGANIZATION.      FOR THIS REASON SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT     CONDUCIVE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.  WHILE IT/S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION     THAT A FEW TORNADOES COULD BE NOTED WITH EARLY SUPERCELL     STRUCTURES...LARGE HAIL...AND WITH TIME DAMAGING WINDS...ARE THE     PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS ONE OR MORE MCS TYPE STRUCTURES     SPREAD/DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS THE MDT RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS.          ...ELSEWHERE...          IN THE WAKE OF BERYL SOMEWHAT DRIER NWLY FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE     CNTRL/ERN GULF STATES.  IT APPEARS A WEAK SFC CONFLUENCE ZONE WILL     ALSO SAG SEWD AND ORIENT ITSELF FROM NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER...WNWWD     INTO CNTRL MS.  AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG THE WIND SHIFT MAY     CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD POSE AT LEAST A     LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL.  IN THE     ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE BACKGROUND SUPPORT IT APPEARS DIABATIC     HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN THIS DEVELOPMENT AND ACTIVITY     SHOULD WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.          ..DARROW.. 05/29/2012          NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z     CURRENT UTC TIME: 1730Z (12:30PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME