MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0966

        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0966     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     0340 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...SERN NY          CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315...          VALID 292040Z - 292145Z          THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 315     CONTINUES.          SUMMARY...THREAT OF DMGG WIND AND HAIL PERSISTS ACROSS SEVERE WW     315. STABLE AREAS IN THE WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF CONVECTION     MAY BE CLEARED. AREAS DOWNSTREAM ARE STILL BEING MONITORED FOR A     POTENTIAL WW.          DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS     EWD...AND HAS MOVED OUT OF SEVERE WW312. ACROSS SERN NY...AN OUTFLOW     BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER THE CATSKILLS IS SURGING NWWD...AND     MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS TO THE W AS THE     BOUNDARIES MERGE. OTHERWISE...THE AIR MASS ACROSS SERN NY INTO WRN     MA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE     WINDS AND HAIL.          FARTHER S...AREA VAD WIND PROFILE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONGER     LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BEHIND THE PRIMARY LINE OF CONVECTION.     HOWEVER...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS ERN PA INTO NJ MAY     STILL SUPPORT A DMGG WIND THREAT. AREAS TO THE EAST OF WW315 ARE     BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. ALTHOUGH NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL     GRADUALLY STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID     CONDITIONS AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME MAY LEAD TO A SLOWER THAN     TYPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE INVERSION.          ..HURLBUT.. 05/29/2012               ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...