MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0965 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KY...FAR SRN IND...WRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 292039Z - 292215Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SRN IND...WRN KY AND WRN TN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CELLS MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MCD AREA. THE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION...A SHORT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF PADUCAH KY ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS OF SHORTWAVE AND ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NWD INTO WRN KY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE APPROACHING 70 F. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT SPEEDS ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -12 C WILL ALSO MAKE HAIL A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY IF DESTABILIZATION CAN CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. ..BROYLES.. 05/29/2012 ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
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