MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0963 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS...WRN OK...NW TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 292006Z - 292130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SW KS...WCNTRL OK AND NW TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP. WW ISSUANCE WILL BE LIKELY BY 2130Z. DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB SFC LOW NEAR CHILDRESS WITH A MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD FROM NORTH TX INTO WRN OK WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F. WARMING SFC TEMPS ALONG THE MOIST AXIS HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MCD AREA. MESOANALYSIS IS ESTIMATING MLCAPE VALUES ARE NOW IN THE 3000 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS MOST OF WRN OK AND PARTS OF SW KS WHERE STORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AROUND 21Z. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE FAVORED ZONE FOR INITIATION WILL BE FROM GAGE OK ARCHING SWD ACROSS WRN OK AND BACK SWWD INTO NW TX WHERE SEVERAL FIELDS OF CUMULUS ARE BECOMING AGITATED ACCORDING TO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. REGIONAL PROFILERS FROM SW KS INTO WRN OK HAVE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35 TO 45 KT WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM 1 KM TO 4 KM AGL. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY...SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CELL MERGERS OCCUR...A SEVERE MCS APPEARS LIKELY. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING ESPECIALLY IF A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING LINE SEGMENT CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS CNTRL OK. ..BROYLES/BUNTING/WEISS.. 05/29/2012 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
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