MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1049 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...WRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 291549Z - 291715Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY INCREASE GRADUALLY WITH TIME. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY OCCUR ACROSS ERN GA AND WRN SC WHERE WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. DISCUSSION...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PLACES TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL ABOUT 50 STATUTE MILES EAST OF ALBANY GA. RAINBANDS ARE WRAPPING AROUND THE SRN AND ERN SIDES OF BERYL. A PROMINENT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF BERYL CURRENTLY EXTENDS NWWD FROM JUST WEST OF SAVANNAH GA NWWD TO JUST SOUTH OF AUGUSTA GA. THIS LINE IS LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOWING 30 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR ACROSS ERN GA. THIS COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-ROTATING CLOUD BASES AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO. AS TROPICAL STORM BERYL MOVES NWD THIS AFTERNOON AND DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR IN THE NERN QUADRANT...THE THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT EXTENDING NWD INTO THE ATHENS GA AND EWD INTO THE CHARLESTON AND COLUMBIA SC AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..BROYLES.. 05/29/2012 ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... "INFORMS YOU ON WEATHER" THIS BLOG WILL INFORM ON WEATHER MOSTLY FOR NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ALSO MOST AREAS DURRING SEVERE WEATHER.
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955
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