Tuesday, May 29, 2012

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955




        MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0955     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     1049 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012          AREAS AFFECTED...ERN GA...WRN SC          CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY           VALID 291549Z - 291715Z          PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT          SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST THIS     AFTERNOON AND MAY INCREASE GRADUALLY WITH TIME. A TORNADO OR TWO MAY     OCCUR ACROSS ERN GA AND WRN SC WHERE WW ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED     OUT.          DISCUSSION...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PLACES TROPICAL     DEPRESSION BERYL ABOUT 50 STATUTE MILES EAST OF ALBANY GA. RAINBANDS     ARE WRAPPING AROUND THE SRN AND ERN SIDES OF BERYL. A PROMINENT LINE     OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NERN QUADRANT OF BERYL CURRENTLY EXTENDS     NWWD FROM JUST WEST OF SAVANNAH GA NWWD TO JUST SOUTH OF AUGUSTA GA.     THIS LINE IS LOCATED ALONG THE AXIS OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR     WITH REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOWING 30 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR ACROSS ERN     GA. THIS COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF GREATER THAN 2     INCHES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-ROTATING CLOUD BASES AND POSSIBLY     A TORNADO OR TWO. AS TROPICAL STORM BERYL MOVES NWD THIS AFTERNOON     AND DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR IN THE NERN QUADRANT...THE     THREAT FOR ROTATING STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL     TORNADO THREAT EXTENDING NWD INTO THE ATHENS GA AND EWD INTO THE     CHARLESTON AND COLUMBIA SC AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.          ..BROYLES.. 05/29/2012               ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC... 

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