DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Graphic

  DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK       NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     1237 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012          VALID 261200Z - 271200Z          ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...          ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES...     AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS THE WRN STATES     SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER     MIDWEST. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CNTRL     HIGH PLAINS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NEB AND     NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY     SHOULD BE CAPPED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON.     ALTHOUGH SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY WILL ALSO EXIST NORTH OF THE     FRONT...INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH NWD EXTENT.     THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT     THROUGHOUT PERIOD BUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE     TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. ANY CONVECTION     THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE NRN     PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY COULD PRODUCE HAIL. THE GREATEST SEVERE     THREAT COULD EXIST IN ERN SD AND SW MN LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO     THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THERE SUPPORTED BY     THE LOW-LEVEL JET. AT THIS POINT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN     MARGINAL AND WILL KEEP THE NRN PLAINS IN A SEE TEXT.          ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...     AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WRN STATES WITH SOUTH     SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A 60 TO 75 KT     MID-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT NNEWD OUT OF THE BASE OF THE     UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THE EXIT REGION OF THE     JET SHOULD OVERSPREAD CNTRL AND ERN WY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE     SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG     THE INSTABILITY AXIS IN ERN WY AT 27/03Z SHOW SBCAPE AROUND 1500     J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH     MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 C/KM SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH     LARGE HAIL ASSUMING THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS REALIZED. THE GFS IS     THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION AND FOR THIS REASON WILL ADD A 5     PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY INTO WRN SD...ERN WY AND SE MT.     HOWEVER...THE NAM...NAMKF AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS DO NOT INITIATE MANY     THUNDERSTORMS IN PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY SUGGESTING A     CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THIS SCENARIO.          ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2012          NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z     CURRENT UTC TIME: 1708Z (12:08PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME