DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK EXTENDED MORE SOUTH AND EAST THAN LAST UPDATED OUTLOOK

Categorical Graphic

Probabilistic Tornado Graphic

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic

Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK       NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK     1135 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2012          VALID 261630Z - 271200Z          ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MANY LOCATIONS OF THE     GREAT PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...          ...CNTRL PLAINS TO MIDWEST...     A DIFFICULT AND UNCERTAIN FORECAST SCENARIO TODAY WITH MAY FACTORS     POTENTIALLY CONTRIBUTING TO SIGNIFICANT TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND OTHER     FACTORS POSSIBLY HINDERING THIS DEVELOPMENT. LARGE SCALE PATTERN     FEATURES A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND A STRONG RIDGE     DOMINATING THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE     FEATURES...DEEP-LAYER SLY FLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO COPIOUS LOW LEVEL     MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS/MIDWEST WHILE AT THE SAME     TIME RESULTING IN AN EXPANSIVE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIRMASS/CAP THAT     WILL INHIBIT MOST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG     FORCED ASCENT AND/OR DIABATIC INFLUENCES.          STORM SCALE GUIDANCE FROM 00Z...THE 12Z WRF-NMM...AND THE 12Z     NAM-WRF MODELS ALL DEPICT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTERNOON STORM     INITIATION ALONG OR IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER IA.     THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE A RESULT OF WEAK DCVA ACCOMPANYING A SERIES     OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES TRAVELING WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER     MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE MAY CREST THE RIDGE AXIS     COINCIDENT WITH A MAXIMUM IN DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND     CONTRIBUTE TO TSTM DEVELOP IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. RESULTING     CONVECTION COULD THEN ORGANIZE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WITH     HAIL AND WIND SPREADING EWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT/WARM     FRONT FROM IA TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THUS PARTS OF THESE AREAS HAVE     BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLGT RISK WITH THIS UPDATE.          EVEN GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN A SCENARIO EXISTS WITH WWD EXTENT ALONG     THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NEB. MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS SOME DEVELOPMENT     NEAR THE FRONT...AND ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH FROM NERN CO     ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL KS BY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT CAN     OVERCOME INHIBITION IN THESE AREAS WILL EXIST IN A KINEMATIC REGIME     SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND     TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL     LIKELY BE SITUATED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL NEB. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY     DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SD THROUGH THE EVENING AND POSE A     TREAT OF LARGE HAIL.          ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SOUTH ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE TO WEST TX...     GREATER INFLUENCE FROM THE LARGE WRN TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE     STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.     STORMS IN THIS AREA WILL GENERALLY LACK ACCESS TO GREATER     INSTABILITY BUT THIS MAY BE COMPENSATED BY MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND     SHEAR. THE RESULT MAY BE A NUMBER OF HIGH BASED CELLS WITH HAIL AND     SOME WIND POTENTIAL SPREAD NEWD FROM WY THROUGH THE EVENING.          ADDITIONAL HIGH-BASED STORMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF LP SUPERCELLS     APPEAR LIKELY ALONG THE DRYLINE SOUTH TO WEST TX. LARGE SCALE     FORCING WILL BE MORE AMBIGUOUS HERE AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE     DIURNALLY DRIVE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECAY WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO     AFTER SUNSET. HAIL/WIND EVENTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO APPEAR     POSSIBLE WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT.          ..CARBIN/BOTHWELL.. 05/26/2012          NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z     CURRENT UTC TIME: 1640Z (11:40AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME