MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0408
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0823 PM CDT SUN APR 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN IND...SWRN OH
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 020123Z - 020230Z
THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL APPEARS TO HAVE COMMENCED WITH
SCATTERED DISCRETE CELLS FORMING ALONG A SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
PROBABILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE IS 40 PERCENT.
01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A COLD FRONT FROM AROUND 30 S CMH TO 35
N IND...WITH SEVERAL CELLS FORMING IN THE PAST 45 MINUTES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAD FALLEN INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION MAY REMAIN
NEAR SURFACE-BASED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.5 DEG C/KM AS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z ILN RAOB ALONG WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN WITH THE
PRIMARY RISK BEING ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
..GRAMS.. 04/02/2012
ATTN...WFO...RLX...ILN...IND...
No comments:
Post a Comment